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Where To Get Sets and Parts For discussions about swapmeets, rallies, NVCF and BVWS, car boot sales, antique and charity shops, dealers, newspaper adverts, the local tip and just about any other source of equipment (other than eBay). |
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3rd Feb 2020, 11:10 am | #41 | ||
Heptode
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Birmingham, West Midlands, UK.
Posts: 708
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Re: Disinfecting components from China.
Quote:
As for us attempting to be the King Canute of climate change, it is going to be very difficult to make volcanoes and bushfires carbon-neutral |
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3rd Feb 2020, 11:39 am | #42 |
Moderator
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Re: Disinfecting components from China.
These forums are not the place to discuss climate change. You can do so here:-
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/viewforum.php?f=51
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3rd Feb 2020, 6:33 pm | #43 |
Dekatron
Join Date: Sep 2010
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Re: Disinfecting components from China.
I think what is worrying is the age groups that are affected. Here in the UK I'd guess that 90% of flu deaths are in the over 65s and often it strikes the much older and more frail people within this age group.
But this virus in Wuhan looks to be targeting mainly middle aged people. The other worrying aspect is the rate of rise of the deaths per day. The deaths per day seems to be doubling every 5 days and it currently stands at 57 deaths for yesterday. This number released for yesterday would presumably be for those who were first infected maybe 25 days ago. So if the rate of infection has stayed constant over the last 25 days then the number of deaths per day in 25 days' time would be 57 x (2^5) = 1824 deaths a day. I hope this is wrong, I hope it is very wrong. It was this that prompted me to try and make a better model because I hope that the treatment/technology will improve and also the warmer weather will help to slowly trim down the infection rate. Otherwise this could get quite serious very soon. It is little wonder those two new hospitals were built so quickly because the existing hospitals in Wuhan are already overloaded.
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3rd Feb 2020, 7:12 pm | #44 | |
Dekatron
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Oxfordshire, UK.
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Re: Disinfecting components from China.
Quote:
People of all ages can be infected by the new coronavirus (nCoV-2019). Older people and people with pre-existing medical conditions appear to be more vulnerable to becoming severely ill with the virus. We might actually expect younger people to be more prone to catching the virus simply because the elderly and the sick don't go out so often (although if infected people visit a care home then the disease can go through it like the proverbial dose of salts). But the WHO think it's older people who are more vulnerable. Incidentally, getting back to the original topic, the first myth that the WHO bust is the one about packages. They say that people receiving packages from China are not at risk of contracting the new coronavirus. They couldn't be clearer. Cheers, GJ
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3rd Feb 2020, 7:16 pm | #45 |
Octode
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Staffordshire Moorlands, UK.
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Re: Disinfecting components from China.
Well said!
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3rd Feb 2020, 7:22 pm | #46 |
Moderator
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Location: Oxford, UK
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Re: Disinfecting components from China.
As I said back in.#14, it seems to be very similar to ordinary seasonal flu in terms of transmission and mortality. Flu carries off many thousands of people across the world every year and we don't get worked up about that. Something's going to get all of us eventually.
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3rd Feb 2020, 7:42 pm | #47 | |
Dekatron
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Re: Disinfecting components from China.
Quote:
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Regards, Jeremy G0HZU Last edited by G0HZU_JMR; 3rd Feb 2020 at 7:56 pm. |
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3rd Feb 2020, 7:51 pm | #48 |
Dekatron
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Colchester, Essex, UK.
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Re: Disinfecting components from China.
What concerns me (and it's not infected imports) is the way the residents of Wuhan (and the government) are treating it as if it's as serious and pervasive as the Andromeda Strain.
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3rd Feb 2020, 7:58 pm | #49 |
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Re: Disinfecting components from China.
I think it's just because it's a novel virus, so something of an unknown quantity. The Chinese also had to deal with SARS 15 years ago so will have put dramatic plans in place to control future epidemics.
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3rd Feb 2020, 8:43 pm | #50 | |
Dekatron
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Oxfordshire, UK.
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Re: Disinfecting components from China.
Quote:
It's a bit hard to extract anything about death rates from this. I imagine in the early days of the outbreak the Chinese hospitalised anyone who showed up with the disease, simply for isolation purposes. So the only information we have about severity is that these older folks were the ones who were sick enough to get themselves to a doctor. That would be consistent with people being infected roughly equally, independent of age, as the WHO suggests, but the over 59s being the ones who were really in trouble with it. That would also be consistent with the way most flus are (not all - infamously the worst flu ever, in 1919, wasn't like that). Cheers, GJ
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3rd Feb 2020, 8:48 pm | #51 |
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Re: Disinfecting components from China.
Personally I'm not in the slightest bit concerned about the Coronavirus. I won't be changing my personal habits or life style.
We all die eventually and I can think of a lot more likely and worse ways of dying than from the Coronavirus.
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Graham. Forum Moderator Reach for your meter before you reach for your soldering iron. |
3rd Feb 2020, 8:50 pm | #52 |
Dekatron
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: London, UK.
Posts: 3,687
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Re: Disinfecting components from China.
Spot on
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3rd Feb 2020, 8:53 pm | #53 |
Octode
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Staffordshire Moorlands, UK.
Posts: 1,464
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Re: Disinfecting components from China.
Ahhhh! you're still alive after licking that Aliexpress order.... Thank goodness!!!
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3rd Feb 2020, 9:03 pm | #54 |
Dekatron
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: London, UK.
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Re: Disinfecting components from China.
Yeah all good here still!
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3rd Feb 2020, 9:15 pm | #55 |
Guest
Posts: n/a
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Re: Disinfecting components from China.
Controlling any potential fatal virus (or bacterium) is a good thing, perhaps we should all be compelled to have two weeks supply of food in stock and obey governments orders to stay put. Discuss...
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3rd Feb 2020, 9:25 pm | #56 | |
Dekatron
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Cheltenham, Gloucestershire, UK.
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Re: Disinfecting components from China.
Quote:
90%... that was my point. The other aspect of this is the impact on China's economy and possibly the world economy. There is a lot to be concerned about.
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3rd Feb 2020, 11:40 pm | #57 | |
Dekatron
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Re: Disinfecting components from China.
90% of flu deaths, yes. But all the age-related data that I could find for the latest outbreak was about patients - how many people became infected. Becoming infected is not a very big deal if you get ill but then you get better. But if the large majority of the deaths this time are among the elderly and those with medical problems then most of the population doesn't need to panic. They need to concentrate on not spreading the disease further, not on demanding to be taken into intensive care.
Quote:
It's not as if they do nothing. They spend a good deal on offering the vaccine to nearly half of us (25 million last year). The take-up rate is less than 50% though, except among the over 65's. There are also messages about good hand hygiene and about staying away from others if you do get sick. Where the whole isolation approach goes belly up of course is if the flu is transmissible before you get any symptoms. Cheers, GJ
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4th Feb 2020, 1:08 am | #58 |
Dekatron
Join Date: Sep 2010
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Re: Disinfecting components from China.
I managed to find downloads of the Lancet reports I read last week. The two are linked. The early report was for 41 cases and the second one is 41+58 = 99 cases. Hopefully they have attached OK below.
At the time of publication of the second report 11 of the 99 had died and half of the deaths appeared to be for those aged 61 years or under. The age distribution of these people on admission is shown in the image below. I think they all had severe pneumonia when tested. I don't know how this sample of 99 was decided but only 15% of the people admitted were over 70 years old. The mean age was 55 and 11% died but this percentage will probably have grown since the report was published as over half of the patients were still very ill in intensive care and only a third of them had been discharged. I hope this info is useful (and not too distressing) although the sample size is quite small. Over time the median age for seriously ill patients may well creep up because it will get into care homes and areas where there are lots of older people. Here in the UK we will probably be OK as we should be poised to investigate (and hopefully control) any cases that develop and also we have the warmer months coming and also treatments will get better for those who get sick. In a year or two there may even be a jab for it...
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4th Feb 2020, 2:56 am | #59 | |
Nonode
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Tintinara, South Australia, Australia
Posts: 2,324
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Re: Disinfecting components from China.
This is from the US CDC website directly (members of the NanoVna group may have seen it posted that group):-
Quote:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html So I would say, do what ever makes you feel safe. |
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4th Feb 2020, 9:47 am | #60 | |
Dekatron
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Oxfordshire, UK.
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Re: Disinfecting components from China.
Quote:
The first two deaths were a 61-year-old man (patient 1) and a 69-year-old man (patient 2) ... Then in the same para, which has now run over onto p6 they say: ... Of the remaining nine patients who died, ... five were older than 60 years ... So I make that seven of the eleven dead (64%) being older than 60 years and only four out of the eleven (36%) being under 60 years. Interestlingly the paper also gives us the age breakdown of all of the patients (living and dead). 37 were over 60 and seven of those died, which is a death rate of 19% for the older people. 62 were under 60 and four of those died, which is a death rate of 6%. One of the hardest things in flu studies is accounting for all the people who were so lightly affected that they didn't bother to go to a doctor or hospital. They just went to bed for a few days, toughed it out and recovered. Unsurprisingly they tend to come from the less vulnerable groups in the population i.e. the young and healthy. So it could well be that this paper has missed a load of young people who got the disease but didn't die. If that's happened then it would push the overall death rate in the under 60 group even further down than the 6% that we see above. Cheers, GJ
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