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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 11:10 am   #41
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Default Re: Disinfecting components from China.

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Originally Posted by cheerfulcharlie View Post
It's fascinating to see that the latest human neurosis about climate change has suddenly been put on the back burner by something microscopic that can render us useless or dead in a matter of hours ...
Fascinating perhaps, but not correct I think. This isn't a bad flu. So far almost all the people who have died were old and quite poorly anyway. It might mutate into something worse, but flu happens. It always has and I suspect it always will. At its very worst (the 1919 Spanish flu) it killed 3-5% of the planet's population. 95-97% either didn't catch it or got over it.

Climate change has the potential to make large parts of the earth uninhabitable because there will be neither food nor fresh water there. That, along with any conflict which arises from it, could kill enough of us to make even the worst flu look insignificant.

Cheers,

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I did not mean to imply the flu bug specifically, just something microscopic ie certain chemicals that could be left on a PC board, the resultant compound of something decaying, or indeed a bug.

As for us attempting to be the King Canute of climate change, it is going to be very difficult to make volcanoes and bushfires carbon-neutral
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 11:39 am   #42
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Default Re: Disinfecting components from China.

These forums are not the place to discuss climate change. You can do so here:-

http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/viewforum.php?f=51
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 6:33 pm   #43
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Default Re: Disinfecting components from China.

I think what is worrying is the age groups that are affected. Here in the UK I'd guess that 90% of flu deaths are in the over 65s and often it strikes the much older and more frail people within this age group.

But this virus in Wuhan looks to be targeting mainly middle aged people.

The other worrying aspect is the rate of rise of the deaths per day. The deaths per day seems to be doubling every 5 days and it currently stands at 57 deaths for yesterday. This number released for yesterday would presumably be for those who were first infected maybe 25 days ago. So if the rate of infection has stayed constant over the last 25 days then the number of deaths per day in 25 days' time would be 57 x (2^5) = 1824 deaths a day. I hope this is wrong, I hope it is very wrong.

It was this that prompted me to try and make a better model because I hope that the treatment/technology will improve and also the warmer weather will help to slowly trim down the infection rate. Otherwise this could get quite serious very soon. It is little wonder those two new hospitals were built so quickly because the existing hospitals in Wuhan are already overloaded.
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 7:12 pm   #44
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Default Re: Disinfecting components from China.

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... But this virus in Wuhan looks to be targeting mainly middle aged people ...
Do you have a link to authoritative evidence for that ? The WHO says (about three quarters of the way down the page):

People of all ages can be infected by the new coronavirus (nCoV-2019). Older people and people with pre-existing medical conditions appear to be more vulnerable to becoming severely ill with the virus.

We might actually expect younger people to be more prone to catching the virus simply because the elderly and the sick don't go out so often (although if infected people visit a care home then the disease can go through it like the proverbial dose of salts). But the WHO think it's older people who are more vulnerable.

Incidentally, getting back to the original topic, the first myth that the WHO bust is the one about packages. They say that people receiving packages from China are not at risk of contracting the new coronavirus. They couldn't be clearer.

Cheers,

GJ
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 7:16 pm   #45
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Default Re: Disinfecting components from China.

Well said!
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 7:22 pm   #46
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Default Re: Disinfecting components from China.

As I said back in.#14, it seems to be very similar to ordinary seasonal flu in terms of transmission and mortality. Flu carries off many thousands of people across the world every year and we don't get worked up about that. Something's going to get all of us eventually.
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 7:42 pm   #47
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Default Re: Disinfecting components from China.

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Do you have a link to authoritative evidence for that ? The WHO says (about three quarters of the way down the page):
I did my research last week (so it may be outdated already) and read stuff in the Lancet about the demographic of the first victims that presented themselves to hospital. Younger people seem to be able to shrug this virus off as a mild illness but the median age of the people who became hospitalised seemed to be mid 50s. There were more men than women but this may be because more men spent more time in the infection hotpots. These may have been trades people who worked with animals in the markets. The death rate for these initial people who presented themselves to hospital was something like 11%.
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 7:51 pm   #48
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Default Re: Disinfecting components from China.

What concerns me (and it's not infected imports) is the way the residents of Wuhan (and the government) are treating it as if it's as serious and pervasive as the Andromeda Strain.
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 7:58 pm   #49
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Default Re: Disinfecting components from China.

I think it's just because it's a novel virus, so something of an unknown quantity. The Chinese also had to deal with SARS 15 years ago so will have put dramatic plans in place to control future epidemics.
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 8:43 pm   #50
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... but the median age of the people who became hospitalised seemed to be mid 50s ...
It says here based on the first 425 patients that the median age of those with the disease was 59. So half the patients were over 59. I can't find data specific to Wuhan, but for China as a whole we see from the 2016 census data that only a small minority of the population (eyeballing it perhaps 10-15% ?) is over 59. So the over 59s are very disproportionately represented among the patients.

It's a bit hard to extract anything about death rates from this. I imagine in the early days of the outbreak the Chinese hospitalised anyone who showed up with the disease, simply for isolation purposes. So the only information we have about severity is that these older folks were the ones who were sick enough to get themselves to a doctor. That would be consistent with people being infected roughly equally, independent of age, as the WHO suggests, but the over 59s being the ones who were really in trouble with it. That would also be consistent with the way most flus are (not all - infamously the worst flu ever, in 1919, wasn't like that).

Cheers,

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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 8:48 pm   #51
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Default Re: Disinfecting components from China.

Personally I'm not in the slightest bit concerned about the Coronavirus. I won't be changing my personal habits or life style.

We all die eventually and I can think of a lot more likely and worse ways of dying than from the Coronavirus.
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 8:50 pm   #52
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Default Re: Disinfecting components from China.

Spot on
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 8:53 pm   #53
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Default Re: Disinfecting components from China.

Ahhhh! you're still alive after licking that Aliexpress order.... Thank goodness!!!
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 9:03 pm   #54
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Default Re: Disinfecting components from China.

Yeah all good here still!
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 9:15 pm   #55
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Default Re: Disinfecting components from China.

Controlling any potential fatal virus (or bacterium) is a good thing, perhaps we should all be compelled to have two weeks supply of food in stock and obey governments orders to stay put. Discuss...
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 9:25 pm   #56
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Default Re: Disinfecting components from China.

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I can't find data specific to Wuhan, but for China as a whole we see from the 2016 census data that only a small minority of the population (eyeballing it perhaps 10-15% ?) is over 59. So the over 59s are very disproportionately represented among the patients.
OK but here in the UK the age distribution isn't that much different yet 90% of flu deaths typically occur in the over 65s here in the UK.

90%... that was my point.

The other aspect of this is the impact on China's economy and possibly the world economy. There is a lot to be concerned about.
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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 11:40 pm   #57
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Default Re: Disinfecting components from China.

90% of flu deaths, yes. But all the age-related data that I could find for the latest outbreak was about patients - how many people became infected. Becoming infected is not a very big deal if you get ill but then you get better. But if the large majority of the deaths this time are among the elderly and those with medical problems then most of the population doesn't need to panic. They need to concentrate on not spreading the disease further, not on demanding to be taken into intensive care.

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Controlling any potential fatal virus (or bacterium) is a good thing, perhaps we should all be compelled to have two weeks supply of food in stock and obey governments orders to stay put. Discuss...
I've never seen an account of any analysis the government might have done, but we've had flu outbreaks pretty much for ever, routinely with 20,000 deaths a year (if the death rate is 2% that means a million people getting the disease) yet the health service deals with the extra load rather than imposing the economic burden of insisting on stockpiles, recruiting more police to enforce it and keeping people away from work. I can't imagine the idea hasn't crossed their mind. So I guess they must have considered it and rejected it.

It's not as if they do nothing. They spend a good deal on offering the vaccine to nearly half of us (25 million last year). The take-up rate is less than 50% though, except among the over 65's. There are also messages about good hand hygiene and about staying away from others if you do get sick. Where the whole isolation approach goes belly up of course is if the flu is transmissible before you get any symptoms.

Cheers,

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Old 4th Feb 2020, 1:08 am   #58
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I managed to find downloads of the Lancet reports I read last week. The two are linked. The early report was for 41 cases and the second one is 41+58 = 99 cases. Hopefully they have attached OK below.

At the time of publication of the second report 11 of the 99 had died and half of the deaths appeared to be for those aged 61 years or under. The age distribution of these people on admission is shown in the image below. I think they all had severe pneumonia when tested. I don't know how this sample of 99 was decided but only 15% of the people admitted were over 70 years old.

The mean age was 55 and 11% died but this percentage will probably have grown since the report was published as over half of the patients were still very ill in intensive care and only a third of them had been discharged.

I hope this info is useful (and not too distressing) although the sample size is quite small. Over time the median age for seriously ill patients may well creep up because it will get into care homes and areas where there are lots of older people.

Here in the UK we will probably be OK as we should be poised to investigate (and hopefully control) any cases that develop and also we have the warmer months coming and also treatments will get better for those who get sick. In a year or two there may even be a jab for it...
Attached Thumbnails
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Attached Files
File Type: pdf lancet_41.pdf (1.23 MB, 16 views)
File Type: pdf Lancet99.pdf (640.9 KB, 11 views)
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Old 4th Feb 2020, 2:56 am   #59
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Default Re: Disinfecting components from China.

This is from the US CDC website directly (members of the NanoVna group may have seen it posted that group):-

Quote:
Q: Am I at risk for novel coronavirus from a package or products shipping from China?

There is still a lot that is unknown about the newly emerged 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) and how it spreads. Two other coronaviruses have emerged previously to cause severe illness in people (MERS and SARS). 2019-nCoV is more genetically related to SARS than MERS, but both are betacoronaviruses with their origins in bats. While we donít know for sure that this virus will behave the same way as SARS and MERS, we can use the information from both of these earlier coronaviruses to guide us. In general, because of poor survivability of these coronaviruses on surfaces, there is likely very low risk of spread from products or packaging that are shipped over a period of days or weeks at ambient temperatures. Coronaviruses are generally thought to be spread most often by respiratory droplets. Currently there is no evidence to support transmission of 2019-nCoV associated with imported goods and there have not been any cases of 2019-nCoV in the United States associated with imported goods. Information will be provided on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus website as it becomes available.
If you want to see any of the other info:-

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html

So I would say, do what ever makes you feel safe.
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Old 4th Feb 2020, 9:47 am   #60
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... At the time of publication of the second report 11 of the 99 had died and half of the deaths appeared to be for those aged 61 years or under ...
One of us must have mis-read the second paper. In the last paragraph on p5 they begin by discussing two patients individually of whom they say:

The first two deaths were a 61-year-old man (patient 1) and a 69-year-old man (patient 2) ...

Then in the same para, which has now run over onto p6 they say:

... Of the remaining nine patients who died, ... five were older than 60 years ...

So I make that seven of the eleven dead (64%) being older than 60 years and only four out of the eleven (36%) being under 60 years.

Interestlingly the paper also gives us the age breakdown of all of the patients (living and dead). 37 were over 60 and seven of those died, which is a death rate of 19% for the older people. 62 were under 60 and four of those died, which is a death rate of 6%. One of the hardest things in flu studies is accounting for all the people who were so lightly affected that they didn't bother to go to a doctor or hospital. They just went to bed for a few days, toughed it out and recovered. Unsurprisingly they tend to come from the less vulnerable groups in the population i.e. the young and healthy. So it could well be that this paper has missed a load of young people who got the disease but didn't die. If that's happened then it would push the overall death rate in the under 60 group even further down than the 6% that we see above.

Cheers,

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